2015 Oscar Nomination Predictions

2015 Oscar Nominee Predictions

Written by Sean Trolinder

Note: Academy Award nominations come out Thursday morning and the following are my predictions in the “Big Eight” categories.

 

Ever since 1999, I have followed the Oscar race and have done a set of predictions every year. It was the year of the dubious Best Picture race, when Shakespeare in Love landed the trophy over Saving Private Ryan, or what some people labelled at the time “the greatest upset in Academy Award history.” Critics screamed that producer Harvey Weinstein had somehow bought Shakespeare in Love an Oscar over possibly the greatest war film ever made. At the time, I was a bit perplexed by the ordeal, too, wondering how an Oscar could be bought. Even to this day, Saving Private Ryan’s loss has been heavily scrutinized, since the film has stood the test of its short time (with it being one of the few films made in the past two decades to crack the AFI Top 100 list), whereas Shakespeare in Love is only remembered by academics and film historians. However, Shakespeare in Love’s victory has also had a lasting impact on how comedies should be viewed by the Academy. Comedies rarely ever win Best Picture, but in recent years, more have made the Best Picture lineup with the field being spread out beyond five features. Now the year is 2015, where a film like Boyhood is hailed as the frontrunner at the moment, but does anyone else have the feeling that this is the year the Academy will finally reward a comedy for Best Picture? We will soon find out.

 

Back in 1999, I began studying how Oscar campaigns were conducted and how much money went into the process. It kind of shocked me how more often than not, the best films and performances of the year were not even nominated. As a teenager, I came to the conclusion that the Oscar race is more political than prestigious, with Harvey Weinstein’s campaigning being more influential than anyone could have predicted. Though I followed many articles written in Variety and The Hollywood Reporter, plus reading many Oscar enthusiasts’ websites that year, no one could accurately predict the 2000 Best Picture lineup. A jolt of excitement came over me on Oscar morning when I, as teenager at the time, had accurately predicted the Best Picture lineup (which was American Beauty, The Cider House Rules, The Insider, The Green Mile, and The Sixth Sense). Part of my predictions came down to dumb luck, since predicting the Oscars is never an exact science; however, I did notice some trends stick out. The most important thing to study when making such predictions is to analyze what the guilds nominate. By seeing trends in the SAG (Screen Actors Guild), DGA (Directors Guild of America), PGA (Producers Guild of America), and the BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Theatre Arts), plus considering the Golden Globes and NBR’s (National Board of Review) lists, picking about 75% of the lineup should be easy. However, picking the wild card out of each lineup comes down to luck with a hint of logic, so once again, I’ll try this year.

Before I make my predictions, I’ll place [LOCK] next to nominees that I feel are safely in. I’ll place [LIKELY] next to something that I feel will be nominated, but it isn’t going to be sure-fired. I’ll place [BUBBLE] next to something I’m predicting that is on the bubble. I will also provide an overview of some alternates that could take some other potential nominee’s spot. Again, this is just my predictions of what will be nominated, not what I personally endorse.

 

 
Best Picture

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Boyhood [LOCK]

Birdman [LOCK]
The Imitation Game [LOCK]
The Grand Budapest Hotel [LOCK]
The Theory of Everything [LOCK]
American Sniper [LIKELY]
Nightcrawler [LIKELY]
Whiplash [BUBBLE]
Foxcatcher [BUBBLE]

 

Alternatives:

Selma

Gone Girl
A Most Violent Year
Into the Woods

Commentary: Over the past few years, the Academy has nominated nine pictures. I doubt they buck the trend this year (though some believe a whole ten is a possibility).

If Best Picture were still a five picture field, I’d say the top 5 that I predicted would be your nominees. They also happen to be the five films on the SAG and BAFTA’s list. The SAG is a very powerful branch, so their nominees are getting in. Throughout history, about half of the NBR’s list makes the Best Picture Oscar lineup. From the NBR list, Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game, American Sniper, and Nightcrawler are the five I predict that will move on to receive nominations. Given those same five films (and The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Theory of Everything) made the PGA’s list, I think they’re extremely likely. The two films I’m unsure about are Whiplash and Foxcatcher. Whiplash and Foxcatcher made the PGA’s top ten. However, so did Gone Girl. Could Gone Girl replace one of the two?

Also, the biggest mystery of the past month is what the Academy will do with Selma. Selma is a curious case for various reasons, since rumor has it that the studios didn’t send off screeners on time for voters of the various branches to see, hints why it did poorly at gaining guild support. In fact, Selma did a terrible job during the precursors, not once scoring a “Best Picture” or “Best” nomination notice from the SAG, PGA, DGA, BAFTA, or NBR (only the Golden Globes nominated it for Best Picture). Some Oscar bloggers believe Selma will be the final nominee and that the stories about the screeners are true. If I had to guess, I’d say Selma gets left out. Rarely does a movie get nominated without precursor support. Then there are rumors around the controversy behind the film’s portrayal of President Lyndon B. Johnson, which seems to have bothered some of the older members in the Academy (then again, there were rumors that the older members found last year’s Best Picture nominee, The Wolf of Wall Street, offensive, but that didn’t amount to anything). The true wild card is A Most Violent Year, yet another film that did not get widespread support from the guilds, yet was the winner of the NBR’s Best Film.

 

 

Best Director

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Richard Linklater, Boyhood [LOCK]

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman [LOCK]
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel [LOCK]
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game [LIKELY]
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash [BUBBLE]

 

True Alternatives:

Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

Ava DuVernay, Selma
James Marsh, The Theory of Everything
David Fincher, Gone Girl

 

Longshots:

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner

 

Commentary: There is always something to be learned about the DGA’s nominations. Historically speaking, the DGA and Oscar’s lists split 4/5 and rarely match up a perfect 5/5. However, 2012 was the most baffling year for Best Director in history. That year, Ben Affleck won Best Director at the DGA for Argo, yet he wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars. To make matters even more confusing, two of his fellow DGA nominees (Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty and Tom Hooper for Les Miserables) missed the Oscar lineup, too. It was the odd year with a 2/5 split, with only Ang Lee (Life of Pi) and Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) holding serve. Though anything is possible, I’m expecting the traditional 4/5 split this year.

The DGA nominated Linklater, Iñárritu, Anderson, Tyldum, and Eastwood this year. Which one drops? Linklater, Iñárritu, and Anderson are locks, since they were nominated by BAFTA and the Golden Globes as well. BAFTA nominated James Marsh over Morten Tyldum and Damien Chazelle over Clint Eastwood. The Golden Globes ignored those four and nominated DuVernay and Fincher.

Most believe that one of the nominations will be between the two British bio. pics, so spot four should be between Tyldum and Marsh. I can’t see both getting in. The DGA branch’s nomination for Tyldum gives him the edge, in my opinion.

The fifth spot is difficult for me to predict. Conventional wisdom says to never, absolutely never, bet against Eastwood with a DGA nomination. However, conventional wisdom also says the DGA and Oscar’s list rarely matches a perfect 5/5. Ever since the Academy has spread Best Picture to more than five nominees, we haven’t had a “lone director” nominee (meaning the director gets nominated, but the picture doesn’t). It is hard to predict DuVernay, since I don’t think Selma will get nominated for Best Picture. However, I could be completely wrong about Selma missing Best Picture, which makes DuVernay a wise choice for the fifth spot. Also, the Academy has never nominated a female African-American director for Best Director. Sometimes the Academy likes to make history, so maybe the temptation to nominate DuVernay is there. With that said, if the Academy were to ever nominate a “lone director” again, Fincher would be a very tempting choice, since he is a great visionary and one of the best auteurs of this century. Then again, the Academy could always surprise us and nominate Mike Leigh out of nowhere, a director the Academy loves to randomly throw into the mix every so often. Without BAFTA fully embracing Mr. Turner, I don’t see the support from the Academy, either.

I’m going to predict that Chazelle gets the fifth nomination. It will be a lot like when Benh Zeitlin was nominated for Beast of the Southern Wild, a first time director that the Academy sees as a future great.

 

Best Actor

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Michael Keaton, Birdman [LOCK]

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything [LOCK]
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game [LOCK]
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler [LIKELY]
David Oyelowo, Selma [BUBBLE]

 

True Alternatives:

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

 

Longshots:

Miles Teller, Whiplash

Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

 

Commentary: The SAG and BAFTA lineup included Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, and Gyllenhaal. For the fifth spot, SAG went with Carell and BAFTA went with Fiennes. Here is the big issue, though—Carell was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Foxcatcher by BAFTA, which somewhat explains Fiennes’ surprise nomination. Both candidates were nominated at the Golden Globes, too. Throughout 2014, Carell was campaigned in the trade papers and websites as the lead in Foxcatcher (and for anyone that has seen the film, it is clear that Tatum is the lead). Since Carell was nominated at BAFTA for Supporting Actor, I think this is a sign of things to come, so I’m highly doubting Carell makes the Best Actor lineup (I hope the Academy does the right thing and nominates him in Supporting Actor…more on this later).

It would be easy for me to just say Fiennes takes the fifth spot in the Oscar lineup, but I actually think Oyelowo and Cooper stand the best chance of getting the wide open fifth spot. I’m going to say that Oyelowo gets the nomination, since Selma has to be nominated somewhere and I think the Academy cannot resist nominating the actor who portrayed Martin Luther King onscreen (even if screeners are a problem). Though Cooper has not received anything in terms of precursor support, the recent buzz about American Sniper is hitting at the right time. The Academy has nominated plenty of actors in the fifth spot before without precursor citations, but I think the factor working against Cooper is that he has already been nominated two years in a row (for Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle). Is the Academy ready to make Cooper a three-time nominee, three years in a row?

Why is Gyllenhaal not a lock with such strong precursor support? I think he’s safely in (borderline lock), since I can’t see a single scenario where the five nominees are all newcomers to the Oscar scene (Gyllenhaal was nominated for Brokeback Mountain and the Best Actor lineup always includes one previous nominee). However, what happens if Carell somehow gets in as a lead and/or Fiennes or Cooper takes the spot as a former nominee? That would be mass chaos. Keaton and Redmayne are in it to win this thing and how is Cumberbatch really going to miss out?

 

 

Best Actress

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Julianne Moore, Still Alice [LOCK]

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl [LOCK]
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything [LOCK]
Reese Witherspoon, Wild [LIKELY]
Jennifer Aniston, Cake [BUBBLE]

 

Alternatives:

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Hilary Swank, The Horseman
Shianne Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

 

Longshots:

Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle

Anne Dorval, Mommy
Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Elanor Rigby

 

 

Commentary: The Golden Globe—Best Actress (Drama) and SAG lists match the five that I have predicted. At BAFTA, Aniston was not on the list, mainly because rumor has it that Cake was ineligible, so Adams took the fifth spot.

I would say that Moore, Pike, and Jones are locks. Witherspoon is probably in, too, given precursor support, but in terms of buzz, Wild’s has died, whereas Moore is being pushed to win, Pike played probably the most talked about female lead all year, and Jones represents the female lead that is connected to a Best Picture nominee (usually always one a year). Witherspoon seems more vulnerable than Moore, Pike, and Jones.

I’ll say Aniston gets her first Oscar nomination, since the campaign has earned her nominations in the right precursors, I’m starting to think the Academy won’t nominate Adams again until they’re ready to give her the statue, and Cotillard will split her own vote (she’s just that good of an actress).

 

 

Best Supporting Actor

 

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash [LOCK]

Edward Norton, Birdman [LOCK]
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood [LOCK]
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher [LOCK]
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher [BUBBLE]

 

Alternatives:

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
Chris Pine, Into the Woods

 

Longshots:

Miyavi, Unbroken

Tom Wilkinson, Selma

Tim Roth, Selma
Alec Baldwin, Still Alice

Charles Dance, The Imitation Game

Alfred Molina, Love is Strange

 

Commentary: The SAG and Golden Globes nominated the same five actors—Simmons, Norton, Hawke, Ruffalo, and Duvall. However, BAFTA threw a wrench into the system and nominated Carell (who has been campaigned as a lead throughout 2014) in Supporting Actor where he belongs.

Some people believe that Duvall’s possible nomination is polarizing. For one, he is a great actor who hasn’t been nominated in a decade and a half. However, The Judge was one of the more disappointing films of the year, and though Duvall gives a good (not memorable) performance, does the Academy really want to recognize that film for anything?

Other than Carell, who could entirely miss the Oscars since some of his votes will go into the lead and supporting categories, who could possibly replace Devall? The Academy has disagreed with categorization of Oscar campaigns in the past (see Keisha Castle-Hughes being campaigned for Supporting Actress for Whale Rider, only to receive a Best Actress nomination, or when Kate Winslet was campaigned as for Supporting Actress for The Reader, later getting a lead nomination and winning the Oscar). Some surprise nominees come via swapping categories, and I think this is the time when the Academy follows the BAFTA’s lead and does the correct thing nominating Carell in supporting.

If Carell does split his own vote, Duvall probably gets in. If not, the most buzzed about performances at the moment are Brolin, Waltz, and Pine (though I don’t see Pine getting in without Streep…more on this later).

 

 

Best Supporting Actress

 

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood [LOCK]

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game [LOCK]

Emma Stone, Birdman [LOCK]

Rene Russo, Nightcrawler [BUBBLE]

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year [BUBBLE]

 

Alternatives:

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

Imelda Staunton, Pride

Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher

Sienna Miller, American Sniper
Carmen Ejogo, Selma

 

Longshots:

Carrie Coon, Gone Girl

Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice

 

Commentary: The Golden Globes and SAG nominated Arquette, Knightley, Stone, and Streep. However, SAG nominated Watts and the Globes nominated Chastain. BAFTA nominated Arquette, Knightley, Stone, Russo, and Staunton (surprisingly, Streep was left off for Russo and Staunton). Based on the precursors, Arquette, Knightley, and Stone are in.

Why would I dare think that this would be the year the Academy leaves out Streep? I mean, they’d nominate her for digging sand, puffing, jumping into the hole, and staring at the audience for over an hour, saying nothing. On top of that, the Academy would claim it’s profound, challenging acting. At some point, Streep’s run at nominations has to end. I say she becomes the surprise snub come Oscar morning and I understand that I might be the only one to predict this.

I think Russo’s buzz is peaking at the right time, and given she was one of the more talented actresses in the 90s, stuck in mediocre films, Oscar likes to reward actresses and actors for their dramatic comebacks, so Russo fits the bill as a great first time nominee at this stage in her career.

As for Chastain, she did win the NBR’s Best Supporting Actress award. Every so often, the NBR winner gets left out of the Oscar nomination pool, but I say Chastain pulls it off in a tight race with Streep. Also, Chastain has been well liked by the Academy in her short career.

If not Chastain, maybe Watt’s SAG nomination carries merit (think Ethan Hawke’s Oscar nomination for Training Day after only a SAG or Demian Bichir’s Oscar nomination for A Better Life after only a SAG nomination). Swinton and Redgrave seem to keep producing good work, yet always get overlooked nomination time, so maybe they get sympathy votes.

Conventional wisdom, which again I’m going against for Eastwood in director, says Streep gets nominated for being Meryl Streep, but I say Russo and Chastain getting in are my “no guts, no glory” picks.

 

 

Best Original Screenplay

 

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Birdman [LOCK]

Boyhood [LOCK]

The Grand Budapest Hotel [LOCK]

Nightcrawler [LIKELY]

Foxcatcher [BUBBLE]

Alternatives:

Mr. Turner

A Most Violent Year

Selma

Ida

 

Longshots:

Big Eyes

Top Five

Dear White People

St. Vincent

Cake

Interstellar

 

Commentary: The WGA (Writers Guild of America) nominees are always deceiving, since so many films are deemed ineligible by their rigorous standards, so they rarely are a reliable source to gauge the Oscar with. BAFTA is usually a great precursor to judge the list, as well as what wins critics’ awards (the critics’ awards have the most influence in writing categories).

BAFTA nominated Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler, and Whiplash. Since the Academy has deemed Whiplash an “adapted” screenplay (since it is an adaptation of Chazelle’s short film), Whiplash will not be nominated here.

The fifth spot is a guess, honestly. I’m going with Foxcatcher, since I’m predicting it to get nominated for Best Picture. However, Mike Leigh (director/writer of Mr. Turner) is an Academy favorite and usually always makes it in for his writing, so he might get the token fifth spot. Sometimes a foreign film lands a screenplay nomination, so as odd as it sounds, don’t be surprised if Ida (Poland’s Oscar submission) randomly pop up here.

The reason Selma has a low chance at a nomination here is simply the controversy behind whether the writers portrayed President Lyndon B. Johnson correctly. Since it is an “original screenplay” (not adapted), I think it shouldn’t matter that much if the material moves the actors and audiences. However, I think Selma’s chances at a screenplay nomination are low, given the main criticism about the film is the writing itself.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

The Imitation Game [LOCK]

Gone Girl [LOCK]

The Theory of Everything [LIKELY]

American Sniper [LIKELY]

Whiplash [BUBBLE]

Alternatives:

Wild

Inherence Vice

Longshots:

Guardians of the Galaxy

Unbroken

 

Commentary: BAFTA nominated The Imitation Game, Gone Girl, The Theory of Everything, American Sniper, and Paddington. However, Paddington is not eligible for the Oscars (the film didn’t meet the qualifying deadline in the United States). Given those four films listed above were nominated and respected by critics, I’d say they’re good shots.

I think Whiplash being eligible in “adapted screenplay” at the Academy Awards means it gets the fifth spot, yet some might not think it is a true adaptation. Moreover, some people really believe Wild will get nominated over one of the five films above, even though buzz for the film has died over the past month.

 

We shall see Thursday morning.