Golden
Globe Winner Predictions
Picks
by Sean Trolinder
·
Note:
I have only predicted the major ten categories for motion picture.
The Golden Globes are not the
Oscars, but it is usually the first major awards show that gives viewers some
indication of what might eventually win and what the more predictable nominees
will be at the Academy Awards. I’ve found that over the years, more often than
not, the Globes are a good precursor to indicate eventual award winners within
the guilds, which influence the final Oscar ballots. Every so often, the Globes
are wrong when predicting winners (see Avatar’s
win over The Hurt Locker nearly five
years ago).
The purpose of this blog is to
predict who or what might win in the motion picture categories at the Globes.
I’m not much of a TV watcher and focus more on feature length movies, so I
won’t be guessing at the TV categories.
Best Picture—Drama
Nominees:
·
Boyhood
·
Foxcatcher
·
The Imitation Game
·
Selma
·
The Theory of
Everything
Will
Win: Boyhood
The Hollywood Foreign Press have
been more willing to award blockbusters, high budget movies, or the flavor of
the month film many times. Sometimes, an indie wins (see Slumdog Millionaire and The
Artist). However, this is an interesting year, since the field is stacked
with indies (it would have been interesting to see Gone Girl here and how it would shake up the race). My guess is that Richard Linklater’s Boyhood
wins here, since his twelve year passion project might be too much to overlook.
Selma might be the eventual winner,
since the controversy behind the film is giving it wide press. I think The Imitation Game might be a stronger
contender than what people think, though, and would not be surprised to see it
win.
Best Picture—Comedy
Nominees:
·
Birdman
·
The Grand Budapest Hotel
·
Into the Woods
·
Pride
·
St. Vincent
Will
Win: Birdman
I definitely don’t see Pride or St. Vincent winning. Into the
Woods seems like a wild card, since the Hollywood Foreign Press does like
musicals, but I can’t see it upsetting the other two films. In my opinion, the
Globes follow conventional wisdom and award Birdman,
which is a visual masterpiece and has exceeded every expectation that the
comedy genre has ever created. In fact, I think Birdman has a good chance to win Best Picture at the Oscars
(comedies rarely ever win there). However, some other experts that follow
awards buzz think that The Grand Budapest
Hotel stands a good chance at an upset. Though it is hard for me to put
bias aside, I just don’t understand how The Grand
Budapest Hotel could possibly be a threat to upset, aside from its widespread
nominations in other categories. It isn’t even Wes Anderson’s best movie.
Best Director
Nominees:
·
Wes
Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel
·
Ava
DuVernay, Selma
·
David
Fincher, Gone Girl
·
Alejandro González
Iñárritu,
Birdman
·
Richard
Linklater, Boyhood
Will
Win: Richard Linklater
There is no way Fincher wins. By his
film missing out on Best Picture—Drama, it just will not happen. Anderson is
just lucky to be nominated and for his films beginning to be appreciated by
awards bodies. Some think DuVernay will win, but the controversy behind Selma probably means she will not be
rewarded by trying to make a film about Martin Luther King. My guess is that
it’s between Iñárritu and Linklater. If I had a vote, it would go to Iñárritu.
Birdman is a technological marvel and his
style elevates the substance (see the use of long tracking shots and the cuts
that are not noticeable—it was quite a trick well executed by Iñárritu and his
team). However, Linklater will continue his march toward an Oscar, since it
took him twelve years to make Boyhood.
Best Actor—Drama
Nominees:
·
Steve
Carell, Foxcatcher
·
Benedict
Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game
·
Jake
Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler
·
David
Oyelowo, Selma
·
Eddie
Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Will
Win: Eddie Redmayne
If the Globes went by pure acting
alone, Gyllenhaal would win. His performance in Nightcrawler shocked me. However, this will be between Cumberbatch
and Redmayne. Redmayne seems to be the favorite, since he won so many awards on
the critics circuit already.
Best Actor—Comedy
Nominees:
·
Ralph
Fiennes, Grand Budapest Hotel
·
Michael
Keaton, Birdman
·
Bill
Murray, St. Vincent
·
Joaquin
Phoenix, Inherent Vice
·
Christoph
Waltz, Big Eyes
Will
Win: Michael Keaton
This is the lock of all locks of the
night. No commentary needed, since Keaton is probably going to eventually win
the Oscar, too, but his performance as Riggan was rich, funny, complex, and
very emotional. I’d say Fiennes is the only outside challenger, but Keaton has
this in the bag.
Best Actress—Drama
Nominees:
·
Jennifer
Aniston, Cake
·
Felicity
Jones, The Theory of Everything
·
Julianne
Moore, Still Alice
·
Rosamund
Pike, Gone Girl
·
Reese
Witherspoon, Wild
Will
Win: Julianne Moore
Best Actress is going to be rather
dull this year at the Oscars. Though I agree Moore is way overdue for awards
love, this seems to be the year that every awards branch wants to make up for
past wrongs by finally giving statues to Moore. Also, this seems to be the year
awards bodies want the public to take Jennifer Aniston seriously as an actress
(her performance in The Good Girl
several years ago was amazing, but until she exceeds it, I remain a skeptic).
Moore will win, but if Witherspoon had not been a previous winner for Walk the Line, then she’d be a serious
threat this year, too.
Best Actress—Comedy
Nominees:
·
Amy
Adams, Big Eyes
·
Emily
Blunt, Into the Woods
·
Helen
Mirren, The Hundred-Foot Journey
·
Julianne
Moore, Maps of the Stars
·
Quvenzhane
Wallis, Annie
Will
Win: Emily Blunt
Honestly, this was the hardest
category to predict and I’m willing to bet a true surprise comes here. Adams
would probably be the favorite, had she not won last year in this category. I’m
guessing Blunt. I doubt Moore is a double winner. Mirren and Wallis are just
happy to be nominated.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees:
·
Robert
Duvall, The Judge
·
Ethan
Hawke, Boyhood
·
Edward
Norton, Birdman
·
Mark
Ruffalo, Foxcatcher
·
J.K.
Simmons, Whiplash
Will
Win: J.K. Simmons
This is one of the few categories
where I’ve seen every performance. Those that know me understand that Edward
Norton is my favorite actor, but objectively, J.K. Simmons gave the performance
of the year in any film I’ve seen. Simmons is flat out amazing, scary, and
sympathetic in Whiplash. Quite
simply, Simmons makes Whiplash the
amazing picture it is (the movie does not work without him carrying it). Also,
Simmons has won every major award so far, except for the NBR’s award (which
went to Edward Norton). Norton would be in second place here and is the only
threat to Simmons.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees:
·
Patricia
Arquette, Boyhood
·
Jessica
Chastain, A Most Dangerous Year
·
Keira
Knightley, The Imitation Game
·
Emma
Stone, Birdman
·
Meryl
Streep, Into the Woods
Will
Win: Patricia Arquette
The Globes have given surprise
winners here in the past. I think Stone might win, just because the Globes
sometimes love to award major rising stars when they can (and Stone fits the
bill). However, Arquette is on a roll, winning almost every major critic award
up to this point. I’m unsure if the momentum stops, but I wouldn’t be surprised
if Stone wins in an upset.
Best Screenplay
Nominees:
·
Birdman
·
Boyhood
·
Gone Girl
·
The Grand Budapest
Hotel
·
The Imitation Game
Will
Win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
I predict Wes Anderson to win here.
Most awards bodies appreciate Anderson more for his writing than anything else.
Considering the Globes like to spread the wealth and I see Birdman and Boyhood
winning multiple awards elsewhere, this seems like a logical choice.
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