Still Alice

Still Alice

*** / **** 

Reviewed By Sean Trolinder

 

Directed by Richard Glatzer & Wash Westmoreland

 

Cast: Julianne Moore, Alec Baldwin, Kristen Stewart, Kate Bosworth, Hunter Parrish, Shane McRae, Stephen Kunken

 

 

 

             Hollywood is notorious for producing too many male-themed films, which make it difficult for female driven dramas to find their footing. Even the successful movies where Sandra Bullock controlled the action have masculine traits (football in The Blind Side and scientific odyssey in Gravity). Though the occasional film where women defy the clichés comes along (see Thelma & Louise), some of the more memorable female-centered films that stand out in history have to do with illness in one form or another (see Terms of Endearment or Iris). With that said, Still Alice does not reinvent the wheel when exploring illness, but what makes it better than the run of the mill, melodramatic story dealing with this issue is Julianne Moore’s performance and how a deteriorating mind can challenge the professional success of an intelligent, successful heroine.

            In the beginning, Alice Howland (played by Julianne Moore) celebrates her fiftieth birthday with her husband, John (played by Alec Baldwin), and two of her adult children—Anna (played by Kate Bosworth) and Tom (played by Hunter Parrish). One of the kids is missing, Lydia (played by Kristen Stewart), and Anna proceeds to criticize her sister’s selfishness. We learn many things early on: one, Alice is a leading scholar in linguistics who teaches at Columbia University and language is her life; two, Lydia lives in Los Angeles and struggles as an aspiring actress, a profession Alice does not approve of; and three, John is a workaholic, so much so that everything is a second priority. It is interesting that Alice’s age is revealed early on and that linguistics is her field of expertize, since once we see signs of her memory fading, we understand that the stakes are incredibly high and she stands to lose much more.

            Alice’s memory begins eroding during a lecture that she gives at UCLA, where she wants to discuss the cognitive development of irregular verbs in children around the ages of six months and two and half years. During this stage, children begin picking up patterns in language without much criticism, but in the middle of the lecture, Alice pauses, drawing a blank on what to say next. It is a noticeable misstep as Alice takes a deep breath and moves onto another point in her lesson. At first, Alice thinks the incident isn’t a big deal, that it was a simple moment of confusion and an effect of turning fifty. However, once she arrives back in New York City, the camera shows a series of long shots of Alice jogging around the Columbia campus, and once she arrives at a concrete stairwell, directors Richard Glatzer and Wash Westmoreland use rack focus to show of the environment around Alice becoming a fog and it takes several seconds before the foreground comes back into focus, a way to help the audience understand that Alice’s condition is a bit more serious. As a precaution, Alice visits Dr. Benjamin (played by Stephen Kankum), who runs a series of tests. Via a point of view shot told in Benjamin’s perspective, we read Alice’s body language as she excels through the picture identification part of the test, but she struggles to remember an address that she was instructed to keep in mind earlier. Later, Dr. Benjamin informs Alice that she’s experiencing a rare form of Alzheimer’s, one that not many people get at her age.

            Then, the plot thickens when Alice and John are informed that the disease could be genetic, so there runs a good chance that one of their children—Anna, Tom, or Lydia—will develop it later in life. Alice grows more depressed, feeling responsible for possibly harming the lives of one of her kids, so she ends up making a video for herself, instructing her to take a bottle of pills with water in a drawer if her mind fades to the point where she can no longer remember the name of her eldest daughter, Anna. The rest of the movie then explores how Alice tries to develop a life with the disease, what’s to come of her career at Columbia, whether John is strong enough to put work aside to aid his wife, and whether Alice can save her relationship with Lydia, who she is at odds with. Lydia refuses to attend college and have a plan B if acting does not work out, and Alice worries what Lydia will do once her mind completely crumbles and she can no longer offer motherly advice.

            In a year where cinematography has been truly impressive (see Birdman, Grand Budapest Hotel, Whiplash, Foxcatcher, and even a mediocre film like Unbroken), I do have to commend Still Alice for being one of the better films to ever use rack focus to capture the psychology of the protagonist. Though I have discussed how the technique was used when Alice jogged around Colombia, Glatzer and Westmoreland use it quite often throughout, and one of its most masterful attempts at it is toward the end of the movie, when Alice visits Dr. Benjamin again to do the exact same test when her mental state was functioning well. Also, Moore’s work is truly moving and Oscar worthy, especially in the scenes where she gets lost looking for the bathroom in her own house and when she finds the courage to read an essay she wrote for the Alzheimer’s Association. Audience members around me were weeping about halfway through, a sign that Moore is earning this Oscar, not merely getting it as a lifetime achievement award. Moreover, the evolution of Kristen Stewart’s character, Lydia, is touching as she seems like the one family member who takes Alice’s disease very seriously, up to the point where she must make a decision to support her mother or give up the dream of acting.

            Even with all the perks, the film does cave into melodrama a few times. There are points when John comes off as a complete jerk and the scenes when he argues with Alice about missing dinner plans and his desire to take another job instead of requesting for his own sabbatical at Columbia are clichés of the unsupportive husband. This is not to say John isn’t supportive in his own way, but we need more films with completely devoted husbands, such as Stanley Tucci’s turn in Julie & Julia.

            Still Alice is a good movie, but not quite on the same level as Terms of Endearment or even Iris. However, it is going to be the one film that earns Julianne Moore her much overdue Oscar and the film does explore Alzheimer’s in an interesting way. It also might be the film that helps Kristen Stewart get better roles and to shed herself of only being known for the dreadful Twilight series.

The Interview

The Interview

* 1/2 / ****

 

Reviewed By Sean Trolinder

 

Directed by Evan Goldberg & Seth Rogen

 

Cast: James Franco, Seth Rogen, Randall Kim, Lizzy Caplan, Diana Bang, Timothy Simons, Anders Holm

 

 

 

           For a Sony movie to anger North Korea so much that they’d threaten the United States upon its release, you’d expect it to hit on the correct satirical cords, right? In my many years of following the film industry, I had never seen a high profile film with so much publicity get pulled before its release, since by doing so, it is an admission by the studio that they would lose money. Since the film business is an industry meant for the mighty dollar, any film with a lucrative budget would be given a fighter’s chance to earn back its investment, right? For all its controversy surrounding the film’s comedic portrayal of Kim Jong-un, The Interview is harmless. It is not the crude humor, the objectification of women, and the same trite jokes that make The Interview an utter disappointment. It is the fact that the film didn’t do enough to make Kim Jong-un into the comedic presence that the film demanded.

            For such a forgettable film, The Interview has a glorious first five minutes. The film begins with Dave Skylark (played by James Franco) doing an interview with the rapper Eminem on Skylark Tonight. While Dave tries his best to dissect the true meaning behind Eminem’s lyrics, the rapper admits, rather calmly, that he is gay, which blows up the phone lines in the control booth. At this moment, the executive producer, Aaron Rapaport (played by Seth Rogen), begins freaking out, declaring that this is the single greatest moment in the show’s history. Eminem’s sudden admission elevates Skylark’s stature momentarily, but only for its celebrity news, which bothers Rapaport, who desires to produce a serious news show one day.

            During another broadcast of Skylark Tonight, one in which Rob Lowe admits that he’s bald, the show is interrupted by an attack done by North Korea. Instead of Skylark taking the news to heart, he throws a fit, since the climactic moment on his show was disturbed by Kim Jong-un’s attempt to be seen as dangerous. After the interruption, Rapaport takes this as an opportunity to mull over what an interview between Skylark and Kim Jong-un can do for his career and how it could change the direction of the show. To his surprise, Rapaport discovers that Kim Jong-un is a fan of Skylark Tonight, so he tries to pull some strings in order to set up this exclusive interview.

            Then enters the CIA, who predictably wants Skylark and Rapaport to murder Kim Jong-un with a strip of poison. The idea is for Skylark to have the strip sitting in his hand while shaking the dictator’s hand, but it becomes clear to Agent Lacey (played by Lizzy Caplan) that Skylark is too much of an idiot to pull it off. Regardless, Skylark and Rapaport are the only two Americans who can be close enough to Kim Jong-un to even attempt this. Before going to North Korea, Agent Lacey warns the duo that Kim Jong-un can be very manipulative, so be careful. Naturally, when Skylark meets Kim Jong-un (played by Randall Kim), they begin developing a friendship. Skylark learns that this man, who Americans consider a threat to the world, is actually a softy, since he enjoys drinking margaritas and listening to Katy Perry songs. After traveling around in Kim’s tank and shooting some hoops, Skylark believes that Kim Jong-un is harmless, but Rapaport, who still clings to this idea that his career is at stake based on what happens in North Korea, tries to convince Skylark not to become too attached, since they still must kill the man.

            Compared to This is the End, a film in which the celebrities were making fun of the personas the media made them out to be, directors Evan Goldberg and Seth Rogen try too hard to make the satire work in The Interview. Part of the reason This is the End worked as a satire is because the performers involved were having entirely too much fun playing up their alter-ego selves, but in this case, Franco and Rogen seem as if they struggle to make the comedic moments work, especially in the North Korean scenes. In addition, Franco’s comedic timing has regressed from his time in Pineapple Express. For an actor who has put together stellar dramatic work in In the Valley of Elah, Milk, and 127 Hours, I have to wonder why he chooses to make so many B-level comedies. Also, the ending of The Interview is rather predictable and Rapaport’s storyline disappears for quite a while once Kim Jong-un enters the film. As far as characterization goes, Rapaport is made out as the one who has the most to lose from this mission, so why the film gives a moron like Skylark so much focus is a bit perplexing.

            In the grand scheme of things, James Franco and Seth Rogen will continue to make comedies, since they are box office draws. However, both have done better work together, so resorting to a film that depends so much on cliché jokes about pooping and how females are seductress manipulators wastes their talents.

A Most Violent Year

A Most Violent Year

*** / **** 

Reviewed By Sean Trolinder

 

 

Directed by J.C. Chandor

Cast: Oscar Isaac, Jessica Chastain, Albert Brooks, David Oyelowo, Elyes Gabel, Alessandro Nivola, Catalina Sandino Moreno, Peter Gerety

 

 

 

            Oscar Isaac has come a long way in order to fulfill his dream of being a lead actor. For quite a while, he was a scene stealing supporting actor (especially in Robin Hood, where his memorable Prince John made Russell Crowe and Cate Blanchett’s presence utterly forgettable, which is tough to do with those two performers). However, in 2013, Joel and Ethan Coen gave him the opportunity to carry a film in Inside Llewyn Davis, and Isaac didn’t disappoint. Combine this with the fact that J.C. Chandor has been one of the more intriguing up-and-coming directors (see Margin Call and All is Lost) and that Jessica Chastain might already be the best actress working today, and you’ve got a potential masterpiece on your hands. Though A Most Violent Year is not without its flaws, the film is a solid character study about a man trying to hold onto his integrity during a time when running a clean business seems impossible. Though Chandor’s career is just beginning, this is probably his best film yet and one that should continue to help Oscar Isaac fortify his career.

            Set in 1981 New York City, A Most Violent Year begins with two very crucial events that set the tone of the entire film—the first being that Abel Morales (played by Oscar Isaac) puts down a 40% deposit on a bayside terminal that allows him to have oil shipped right to his docks, and the second is that one of his drivers, Julian (played by Elyes Gabel), allows two men to rob one of Abel’s trucks carrying $6,000 worth of fuel, since he is not permitted to carry a firearm. The men that Abel is purchasing the property from give him thirty days to come up with the rest of the money, or they’ll pocket the deposit and sell the land to one of Abel’s rivals. With this declaration, the film establishes a timeline that pulls in one conflict, yet Abel thinks the transaction will go down smoothly, since the banks have promised him a loan for the other 60% (more on this later). Meanwhile, the two men who robbed Julian roughed him up pretty good, forcing him to be hospitalized. This brings into question the overarching theme of the film, which is constantly explored—how is Abel going to run a successful business transporting oil when his trucks are constantly being robbed and how is a man of integrity, who wants to do everything correctly, to gain respect from his competitors?

            Throughout A Most Violent Year, Abel’s philosophy is tested. First, a union leader for truck drivers asks Abel to supply his drivers with firearms and false permits, that way they can protect themselves if a robbery attempt happens again. Abel refuses to give into violence, saying that if one of his drivers shoots someone, than it will bring down his entire business. Also, Abel is all about persona and breaking the law is not good for reflecting on his business. Even though Abel swears that he has never stolen a nickel from one of his customers or employees, the police believe that there is something more to these truck robberies, so they wish to look over Abel’s financial records. Office Lawrence (played by David Oyelowo) has reason to believe that Abel’s company has been embezzling funds and laundering money, which angers Abel, swearing that he is an honest businessman. The third issue Abel must deal with involves an intruder trying to break into his new home one night, which he scares away. Abel’s wife, Anna (played by Jessica Chastain), thinks there is more to the mysterious figure trying to break into their home. She claims that it is one of Abel’s rivals trying to send a message, which he dismisses as unlikely, until their daughter discovers a gun near a bush.

            The tension rises even more when Abel’s partner, Andrew Walsh (played by Albert Brooks), allows drivers to carry firearms in the trucks without consulting Abel. Once Julian returns to work, Abel tells him not to worry, that he’ll be given the safest route that day. However, the same two men who robbed Julian earlier follow him and try to take the truck again. This time, Julian, who still suffers from the last incident, ends up firing off four shots in the direction of the men. It causes the robbers to run away, but not without the police being alerted. Since the police are investigating the robbery of Abel’s trucks, his personal finances, and now a shooting associated with his business, the bank pulls out of their deal to finance Abel’s attempt to buy the bayside terminal. With only two days left, Abel’s perfect image gets tested even more, since he must squabble and make deals in order to close. Throughout the second half of the film, the audience is left to question if Abel will find the funds through ethical means—again, his philosophy—or if he must become corrupt and a bit of a gangster, not only to protect his family, but to finally achieve his goal of the American dream.

            Ultimately, Jessica Chastain’s performance as Anna is the film’s highlight. On one hand, we learn she comes from a shady background, since her father made money by immoral means, but as a viewer, we must wonder why Anna would marry Abel since he’s so different from her upbringing. In many scenes, we see Jessica Chastain act as the cool, collected housewife that supports Abel’s noble pursuits, yet there are scenes where she explodes, question Abel’s manhood and ability to protect their family. This is exemplified in one scene after Abel couldn’t find the heart to beat a deer with a tire iron after accidentally hitting it while driving, so Anna finishes the job by shooting it. Abel doesn’t like the idea of a gun being in his house, but Anna contests that if he can’t act as the protector of the household, than maybe she should.

            Moreover, J.C. Chandor does a great job of slowly building tension, yet keeping the audience on the edge of their seats. In many indoor scenes, the lighting is dim, hinting at the vagueness of not only the deals Abel chooses to make, but also the associates he converses with. Also, Chandor tends to use close-ups and medium shots well in order to establish the extent in which his characters seize and lose control. He was able to employ this well in Margin Call and All is Lost, but he continued to make strides in using the mis-en-scene to its potential in this film.

             The drawbacks of A Most Violent Year are minimal, yet noticeable. First, the film does not quite live up to its title, even though it is set during the most violent year recorded in New York City. Chandor does restrain himself from showing all out violence, and though this might satisfy those who hate the glorification of gore in cinema, it does not quite feel realistic, especially with so much at stake throughout the movie. Moreover, Albert Brooks is a fantastic actor, and though he has played a weasel before, the character Andrew Walsh didn’t quite have the complexity that utilizes Brooks’ talents. Walsh seemed like it were a role written for a lesser actor, but perhaps Brooks chose to do this one just to work with Chandor. In terms of how the film ends, it will often get criticized (and for good reason), but I’ll just say that it seemed too forced without spoiling it.

            A Most Violent Year probably deserves to be among the best movies made in 2014, but it will not satisfy everyone. The movie was marketed as a gangster film, but it is more of a story about a man trying to avoid that lifestyle. However, the film is worth watching if you’re interested in seeing the rising careers of J.C. Chandor, Oscar Isaac, and Jessica Chastain—all of whom could be future greats. This could be one of those films looked back on ten years from now as a hidden gem, so you might want to appreciate it now.

Blackhat

Blackhat

** / ****

 

Reviewed By Sean Trolinder

 

Directed by Michael Mann

Cast: Chris Hemsworth, Viola Davis, Wei Tang, Leehom Wang, Ritchie Coster, John Ortiz, Holt McCallany, Andy On, Christian Borle

 

 

 

            Once upon a time, Michael Mann directed movies with strong female characters. There is no doubt that the subject matter in Mann’s films has always been very masculine, but hear me out. In The Last of the Mohicans, Madeleine Stowe’s portrayal as Cora matched the intensity given by Daniel Day-Lewis’ Hawkeye, mainly because she had moments of emotional stability, even when it seems like Hawkeye was about to lose it. In Heat, Ashley Judd’s Charlene betrays the cops by tipping her husband, Chris, about their plans, even after the police threatened to take away custody of her son. Even Marion Cotillard’s Billie Frechette doesn’t seem threatened by the cops in Public Enemies. I’d even go as far as to say that Gong Li was far tougher than most of the men in Miami Vice. In Mann’s latest film, Blackhat, he fails to portray Chen Li (played by Wei Tang) as a strong counterpart to Hathaway (played by Chris Hemsworth), since her essential function throughout the film is to just be his lover. When introduced in the film, Li is hailed as a very loyal person that does not crack under pressure and is an expert computer engineer. Her backstory certainly sounds promising, yet does Mann really allow us to see Li stay level under pressure and exhibit her intelligence as an expert in computers? Very rarely, if at all.

            The extreme stereotyping of women is not the only distraction in Blackhat. Its second major flaw are the number of plot holes that litter the script. At the beginning of the film, Mann gives the audience a bunch of close tracking shots of information moving through a cyber-channel, until whatever’s being sent arrives at a Chinese nuclear reactor. Predictably, it blows up, causing major concerns for the Chinese government. To track down the hacker that sent the encryption that causes a water pump to blow up the reactor, the Chinese government hires an intelligence officer named Chen Dawai (played by Leehom Wang). He agrees to do this assignment, under the condition that his sister, Chen Li—who again is supposed to be an expert computer engineer—accompanies him, since he believes that she is the only person he can truly trust with valuable information. Meanwhile in the United States, catastrophe strikes on Wall Streets, as a hacker raises the number on soy materials, which causes several people to cash out to a nice profit. At first, the U.S. government doesn’t know what to make of the issue, but they just assume that it is connected to the reactor explosion in China. Though it seems highly unlikely the two incidents are related, the screenwriters automatically play into the assumption that the audience wouldn’t question the impossibility, so they run with it (and, yes, the two are related in the film). To find this mysterious hacker, the United States agrees to work with the Chinese, so Dawai and Li arrive.

            Once in America, Dawai starts calling the shots, demanding the United States release a hacker named Hathaway from prison. Predictably, the U.S. intelligence officers of this mission—Carol Burrett (played by Viola Davis) and Henry Pollack (played by John Ortiz)—do not like being ordered to release a prisoner, but we soon find out Hathaway’s true worth. Before being sent to prison, Hathaway wrote an elaborate code that the same hacker used. As the architect behind the very thing that has caused this chaos, Hathaway is the only person alive intelligent enough to sort through the code to trace where the hacker might be and what his/her next line of attack might be. Hathaway is granted a temporary release, but he does not enjoy the idea of going back to prison for doing something of great worth to save the world. The U.S. intelligence officers agree to allow him limited access to computers as he does this job (yet this is a ridiculous plot hole, since he needs a ton of access just to track the coordinates of the hacker).

            Soon after, Dawai gets preoccupied doing God knows what, leaving Hathaway alone with Li. At this point in the film, it is as if the screenwriters had a difficult time justifying how to get Hathaway and Li alone, leading to their predictable fling. While working, Hathaway finds little clues along the way that lead the team closer to the hacker, in between moments of sleeping with Li. When Dawai finds out about their affair, he tends to just shrug it off as if it’s no big deal, saying, “This is the happiest she’s been in years.” His only real concern is if Hathaway can stay out of trouble and to avoid prison time if he is to take this relationship seriously, in which Hathaway intends to (but again, predictably, he later gets involved in a situation in which the U.S. wants him thrown back in jail for hacking into a program called “Black Widow,” making him a fugitive again for a better part of the film).

            True to his form, Mann’s auteur style—which consists of grainy film, handheld cameras, and relentless violence—is on full display. Even though Mann’s films today are not quite of the caliber that they were in the nineties, any enthusiasts of cinema can respect how he remains true to his form. In many scenes, which involve explosions, gun shots, and knife fights, Mann makes the moments seem real, as if watching a documentary, since the handheld camera gets the audience up close to the action. The grainy film quality fits the mood of its theme, which seems grimy and full of sleazy character. On top of that, the movie is about an underworld of hackers, so contrasting distorted photography in an age of advanced technology seems to fortify why characters like Hathaway and Dawai are never sure about whether just one hacker is behind the two catastrophic events.

            I have to admit that it is painful to watch Mann regress into mediocrity. In the nineties, back when my curiosity for film was fresh, Mann’s work was a staple for how I measured excellence. The Last of the Mohicans, Heat, and The Insider are all excellent films, each deserving of making top fifty lists of nineties films. However, Blackhat is just another film that leaves fans of his work wondering if he’ll ever recapture the magic he had in the nineties.

American Sniper

American Sniper

*** 1/2 / ****

 

Reviewed By Sean Trolinder

Directed by Clint Eastwood

 

Cast: Bradley Cooper, Sienna Miller, Jack McDorman, Sammy Shiek, Keir O’Donnell, Luke Grimes, Mido Hamada, Kevin Lacz, Eric Ladin, Cory Hardrict

 

 

 Before Bradley Cooper became an A-list actor, he was often noted as one of the more intriguing Broadway actors who could be a future great. For several years, Bradley Cooper took supporting roles in romantic comedy hell (if you have the time and patience, rewatch Failure to Launch, Yes Man, and Wedding Crashers, and you’ll see my point). It was not until director David O. Russell took a chance on him a few years ago, casting him as the lead in Silver Linings Playbook, when Hollywood started taking notice of the actor’s range. Though Silver Linings Playbook and America Hustle (both directed by Russell and earned Cooper Academy Award nominations) were both comedies with deep, thematic elements, Cooper proved his dramatic range in Limitless and The Words. However, Cooper’s portrayal as expert sharpshooter Chris Kyle in American Sniper is not only his best performance to date, but should now put him in the conversation as one of the best actors of his generation.

Directed by tactical directing legend Clint Eastwood, American Sniper spans through Chris Kyle’s four tours of duty (roughly ten to twelve years), while devoting a small portion of the film to Kyle’s childhood and upbringing. In fact, the movie begins in a moment when the action hits an apex during Kyle’s first tour, when on top of a roof, he spots a woman handing a RKA Russian grenade to a little boy. Kyle’s spotter cautions him that if he shoots the boy and the grenade is nothing, then the U.S. military will send him to Leavenworth. Before we find out whether Kyle has what it takes to pull the trigger, a gunshot echoes as the film cuts to Kyle’s childhood, back to a moment when he was hunting with his dad. The shot came from Kyle’s rifle after killing his first deer. Afterwards, we get an anecdote about a time when Kyle’s brother, Jeff, is getting beat up in a playground. The young Chris Kyle stands up to the bullies, protecting his brother. As boys, their father gives a speech about people acting like sheep (cowards) and wolves (bullies), and how neither should be present in their family. Then the film cuts to several years later, while Chris Kyle and Jeff try to make it in rodeo and as cowboys, but when Chris watches a U.S. embassy being blown up on the news one evening, he feels inspired to join the SEALS.

Through quick cuts and montages, Eastwood puts together clips of Chris Kyle surviving SEAL training and the rigorous process he endured just to have a shot to be trained as a sniper. When September 11^th happened, Kyle gets shipped to Iraq for his first tour of duty, which leads us back to the beginning of the film. As Kyle contemplates shooting the boy, the audience quickly understands that if he were to pull the trigger, it would be his first kill and not the way Kyle envisioned his career beginning. Regardless, Kyle’s decisions to kill anyone with a weapon and protect fellow soldiers at any cost shows the sniper’s dedication to his country, and though he claims that he does not regret killing anyone, we quickly learn that any time a child is present and could be the victim of his shot, he feels profoundly conflicted about the moral implications about taking such a life.

Killing Iraqi soldiers is just one part of the action that drives the film, and compared to some of Eastwood’s other films, American Sniper seems to risk being honest, regardless of an audience member’s political affiliation. Eastwood has directed war films before (like Flags of Our Fathers and even Letters from Iwo Jima), but American Sniper might be his most violent and unflinching critique of war. On one hand, the film comes off as pro-war, since it plays up the theme of how war is about fighting for the man beside you and making sure war never hits our homeland; however, Eastwood plays up anti-war themes every time Chris Kyle returns from a tour. Back home, he has a wife named Taya (played by Sienna Miller), who becomes pregnant multiple times with his children, and while Kyle is off sniping the enemy, Taya worries whether he will come back. She suffers as much as Kyle does, sometimes from loneliness, sometimes due to the unknown of when Kyle will quit volunteering for tours, but most often due to her hearing gunfire in the background while Kyle talks with her on a cell phone. American Sniper also explores anti-war elements like PTSD (Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder), since every time Chris Kyle returns, he becomes more paranoid and sensitive to noises. Things that trigger Kyle’s anxiety are the groaning of a lawn mower, the zip of tire bolts being taken off cars in an auto repair shop, or sometimes the sound of explosions that come out of nowhere (and these moments are the most subtle and hidden, since Eastwood makes even the audience question if Kyle is imagining such noises). As Kyle’s PTSD becomes more prominent, Taya begins asking more questions about whether Kyle is the same man that she married.

Perhaps the most interesting storyline in American Sniper is the cat-and-mouse game Chris Kyle must play with Iraq’s best sniper, an Olympic marksman champion named Mustafa (played by Sammy Shiek). As Kyle’s reputation grows, a bounty for $180,000 is placed upon his head and Mustafa seems content on being the one who takes America’s best sniper out. Some of Chris Kyle’s dangerous missions in finding a terrorist named “The Butcher” (played by Mido Hamada) lead him to close calls and gun battles with Mustafa, and with Eastwood’s use of the shaky cam at times, the audience becomes a part of the action. This storyline plays through Kyle’s four tours of duty, and in the later stages, it becomes personal for both snipers.

In terms of criticism, Eastwood has been accused of directing propaganda pieces in the past, and several moments throughout American Sniper lean toward such a conclusion. It is sometimes hard to separate the man and the myth of Chris Kyle in the film, since almost every soldier he runs into calls him a legend. Moreover, Kyle tells Taya many times throughout the movie that he fights to protect her, to protect his children, and to protect his country, which are phrases that have been played out in several war films. Kyle mentions fighting for “God and country” openly a few times, which is a phrase often preached within the U.S. military. Also, the movie tends to just drop the storyline between Chris Kyle and his brother, Jeff, which is odd, considering the first fifteen minutes of the film focuses so much on their bond. Other than a brief encounter between the two when Chris returns for another tour and Jeff is being shipped back home, we don’t get much closure with what comes of their relationship due to war.

Compared to most of the lackluster war films made over the past several years, American Sniper seems to have regained the genre’s respect. As far as Eastwood’s films go, this is probably his best work since Letters from Iwo Jima (though I still have a soft spot for his underrated masterpiece, Invictus). With a good mixture of action, character development, amazing cinematography, and Bradley Cooper’s performance, American Sniper should be one of the rare films that satisfies both the average movie goer and enthusiasts of art house cinema.

Wild

Wild

 

*** / ****

Reviewed By Sean Trolinder

 

Directed by Jean-Marc Vallee

Cast: Reese Witherspoon, Laura Dern, Thomas Sadoski, Gaby Hoffman, Keene McRae, W. Earl Brown, Kevin Rankin, Michiel Huisman, Mo McRae, Brian Van Holt

 

 

Last year, director Jean-Marc Vallee exploded onto the scene with his wildly successful Dallas Buyers Club after years of struggling to get noticed. When Matthew McConauhey and Jared Leto won Oscar for their performances, practically every performer in Hollywood wanted to work with Vallee. Instead of cashing in and making a big studio film, Vallee stuck with the indie route, directing Wild. Based off Cheryl Strayed’s memoir and adapted by Nick Hornby (author of High Fidelity and screenwriter of An Education), the film follows Cheryl (played by Reese Witherspoon) on her three month hike along the Pacific Crest Trail. At first, the audience is left to wonder why Cheryl would embark on a 1,100 mile hike, and true to Vallee’s form, he keeps the audience at a distance and allows events to unfold progressively. Like in Dallas Buyers Club, Vallee does not hit audiences with tons of information at first, and though his leisurely pace is often compared to as a “slow burn,” he does a good enough job building tension for the viewer to understand Cheryl’s physical and psychological struggles. There is no doubt that Reese Witherspoon’s control over Cheryl’s vulnerabilities help aid the character study, but perhaps the most impressive feat the film achieves is balancing the interesting backstory with the present action. Through smooth editing, I never once got lost in the time frame of the film.

The film begins in the middle, while Cheryl is standing over a cliff, attending to a busted toenail. Through a close-up, we see Cheryl’s foot bloodied, soaking the front end of her sock. While pulling the nail, her boot falls off the cliff, leading her without proper footwear to survive the wild. The first question viewers must ask is what has Cheryl done to warrant such punishment and bad luck, while the next one is why take this hike to begin with? In a way, the hike is a way for Cheryl to cleanse her soul, to rediscover herself, but perhaps the most obvious thing we learn from Cheryl’s backstory is that she has endured a series of unfortunate events.

Soon after the strange start, the film cuts back to when Cheryl begins her journey. She has a final conversation over the phone with her ex-husband, Paul (played by Thomas Sadoski), who clearly still loves her, but is rendered helpless in talking her out of making the journey through the Pacific Crest Trail. On day one, Vallee uses a voiceover of Cheryl’s subconscious, reminding her that she could quit any time she wants, and within five miles, she gives it some serious thought. When she stops for food, she figures out that she does not have the proper gas to cook with, so she will be stuck eating cold mush.

What makes Wild interesting after the first several minutes into the journey is that the great outdoors triggers flashbacks from Cheryl’s past, revealing pieces of her history and why the hike is necessary. The quick cuts and seamless transitions into the past make watching the hike durable. If Vallee had chosen to just show Cheryl hiking through the woods and mountains, the narrative would dull quickly, but the flashbacks are where the real story comes out. During many points in the film, noises and images (such as a flocking of crows, the sunrise, a copy of a James Michener book, and a fox that may or may not be physically present) lead to memories of Cheryl’s mother, Bonni (played by Laura Dern), who she claims, “Is the love of my life.” Little anecdotes of Bonni attending college at the same time as Cheryl, how she sings while cooking, and a curious replay of Bonni stretching out her arms, telling Cheryl and her brother how much she loves them, quickly intercuts with scenes from Cheryl navigating the great outdoors. Through Dern’s performance, we find out that Bonni—who was married to an abusive husband—is the perfect mother, always trying to make a negative into a positive. Even when things are tough for Cheryl in the past, Bonni encourages her to have a big heart and happiness is the most important element in life.

Even though more than half of Cheryl’s memories deal with Bonni, a few reflect on the events that lead to Cheryl’s divorce to Paul. One flashback shows Cheryl and Paul at a tattoo parlor, getting emblems of a horse inked into them (and the images of horses become prominent in the Bonni subplot, too). They claim that the horses are symbols in which they’ll remember each other by, but it also serves as a reminder of how their divorce is finalized. The flashbacks also reveal some of Cheryl’s questionable choices that led to Paul granting the divorce, some of which relates to Cheryl’s heroin addiction.

Though the psychological element of Wild is vital, the physical story about hiking brings up two interesting themes: 1) To what extent do we entrust strangers for help, and 2) How does one survive the outdoors due to changes in landscapes, seasons, and limited water? Along the journey, Cheryl inevitably meets a bunch of men she does not quite trust at first, and with good reason. Some of the hikers on the trail even admit that they do not see many women make the trek. For example, the kindness of two men—Frank (played by W. Earl Brown) and Greg (played by Kevin Rankin)—help Cheryl push through rough patches when quitting seems like a high possibility. However, during a scene when Cheryl finds a small watering hole, she runs into two creepy men who contemplate taking advantage of her, so Cheryl must figure out a way to outwit them to escape a particularly odd situation.

Another clever element about Wild is how Cheryl signs the log books at each post, often quoting famous writers like Robert Frost and Walt Whitman. By signing these logs, Cheryl develops a bit of a celebrity status amongst the other hikers, since they see the progress of a female surviving the route. Some of the hikers she runs into them claim that she is their hero, which gives her more encouragement to push on.

Wild has a ton of strengths, such as the strong performances by Witherspoon and Dern, Vallee’s direction, and the clean editing, so on a technical level it is one of the better movies of the year. On the other hand, there are a handful of scenes that seem like they should be cut and somewhat hinder the progression of the story. For instance, Cheryl tries to hitch a ride midway through the film, only to be stopped by an aspiring writer for The Hobo Times, who has a goal of getting a piece published in Harper’s. Cheryl might have experienced this in real life, but the scene comes off as clumsy, forced, and trying to be too comedic for its own good. Also, I found the whole sequence of events that take place in Oregon to be forgettable, even though about twelve minutes of the film takes place there.

Overall, Wild is an impressive follow up for Jean-Marc Vallee, who is quickly developing the reputation as an auteur and perhaps the next Lasse Hollstrom. This is Witherspoon’s best work since Walk the Line, a film that reminds audiences that she has a ton of range, despite being typecasted as just something to be looked at and admired.

2015 Oscar Nomination Predictions

2015 Oscar Nominee Predictions

Written by Sean Trolinder

Note: Academy Award nominations come out Thursday morning and the following are my predictions in the “Big Eight” categories.

 

Ever since 1999, I have followed the Oscar race and have done a set of predictions every year. It was the year of the dubious Best Picture race, when Shakespeare in Love landed the trophy over Saving Private Ryan, or what some people labelled at the time “the greatest upset in Academy Award history.” Critics screamed that producer Harvey Weinstein had somehow bought Shakespeare in Love an Oscar over possibly the greatest war film ever made. At the time, I was a bit perplexed by the ordeal, too, wondering how an Oscar could be bought. Even to this day, Saving Private Ryan’s loss has been heavily scrutinized, since the film has stood the test of its short time (with it being one of the few films made in the past two decades to crack the AFI Top 100 list), whereas Shakespeare in Love is only remembered by academics and film historians. However, Shakespeare in Love’s victory has also had a lasting impact on how comedies should be viewed by the Academy. Comedies rarely ever win Best Picture, but in recent years, more have made the Best Picture lineup with the field being spread out beyond five features. Now the year is 2015, where a film like Boyhood is hailed as the frontrunner at the moment, but does anyone else have the feeling that this is the year the Academy will finally reward a comedy for Best Picture? We will soon find out.

 

Back in 1999, I began studying how Oscar campaigns were conducted and how much money went into the process. It kind of shocked me how more often than not, the best films and performances of the year were not even nominated. As a teenager, I came to the conclusion that the Oscar race is more political than prestigious, with Harvey Weinstein’s campaigning being more influential than anyone could have predicted. Though I followed many articles written in Variety and The Hollywood Reporter, plus reading many Oscar enthusiasts’ websites that year, no one could accurately predict the 2000 Best Picture lineup. A jolt of excitement came over me on Oscar morning when I, as teenager at the time, had accurately predicted the Best Picture lineup (which was American Beauty, The Cider House Rules, The Insider, The Green Mile, and The Sixth Sense). Part of my predictions came down to dumb luck, since predicting the Oscars is never an exact science; however, I did notice some trends stick out. The most important thing to study when making such predictions is to analyze what the guilds nominate. By seeing trends in the SAG (Screen Actors Guild), DGA (Directors Guild of America), PGA (Producers Guild of America), and the BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Theatre Arts), plus considering the Golden Globes and NBR’s (National Board of Review) lists, picking about 75% of the lineup should be easy. However, picking the wild card out of each lineup comes down to luck with a hint of logic, so once again, I’ll try this year.

Before I make my predictions, I’ll place [LOCK] next to nominees that I feel are safely in. I’ll place [LIKELY] next to something that I feel will be nominated, but it isn’t going to be sure-fired. I’ll place [BUBBLE] next to something I’m predicting that is on the bubble. I will also provide an overview of some alternates that could take some other potential nominee’s spot. Again, this is just my predictions of what will be nominated, not what I personally endorse.

 

 
Best Picture

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Boyhood [LOCK]

Birdman [LOCK]
The Imitation Game [LOCK]
The Grand Budapest Hotel [LOCK]
The Theory of Everything [LOCK]
American Sniper [LIKELY]
Nightcrawler [LIKELY]
Whiplash [BUBBLE]
Foxcatcher [BUBBLE]

 

Alternatives:

Selma

Gone Girl
A Most Violent Year
Into the Woods

Commentary: Over the past few years, the Academy has nominated nine pictures. I doubt they buck the trend this year (though some believe a whole ten is a possibility).

If Best Picture were still a five picture field, I’d say the top 5 that I predicted would be your nominees. They also happen to be the five films on the SAG and BAFTA’s list. The SAG is a very powerful branch, so their nominees are getting in. Throughout history, about half of the NBR’s list makes the Best Picture Oscar lineup. From the NBR list, Boyhood, Birdman, The Imitation Game, American Sniper, and Nightcrawler are the five I predict that will move on to receive nominations. Given those same five films (and The Grand Budapest Hotel and The Theory of Everything) made the PGA’s list, I think they’re extremely likely. The two films I’m unsure about are Whiplash and Foxcatcher. Whiplash and Foxcatcher made the PGA’s top ten. However, so did Gone Girl. Could Gone Girl replace one of the two?

Also, the biggest mystery of the past month is what the Academy will do with Selma. Selma is a curious case for various reasons, since rumor has it that the studios didn’t send off screeners on time for voters of the various branches to see, hints why it did poorly at gaining guild support. In fact, Selma did a terrible job during the precursors, not once scoring a “Best Picture” or “Best” nomination notice from the SAG, PGA, DGA, BAFTA, or NBR (only the Golden Globes nominated it for Best Picture). Some Oscar bloggers believe Selma will be the final nominee and that the stories about the screeners are true. If I had to guess, I’d say Selma gets left out. Rarely does a movie get nominated without precursor support. Then there are rumors around the controversy behind the film’s portrayal of President Lyndon B. Johnson, which seems to have bothered some of the older members in the Academy (then again, there were rumors that the older members found last year’s Best Picture nominee, The Wolf of Wall Street, offensive, but that didn’t amount to anything). The true wild card is A Most Violent Year, yet another film that did not get widespread support from the guilds, yet was the winner of the NBR’s Best Film.

 

 

Best Director

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Richard Linklater, Boyhood [LOCK]

Alejandro González Iñárritu, Birdman [LOCK]
Wes Anderson, The Grand Budapest Hotel [LOCK]
Morten Tyldum, The Imitation Game [LIKELY]
Damien Chazelle, Whiplash [BUBBLE]

 

True Alternatives:

Clint Eastwood, American Sniper

Ava DuVernay, Selma
James Marsh, The Theory of Everything
David Fincher, Gone Girl

 

Longshots:

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

Dan Gilroy, Nightcrawler
J.C. Chandor, A Most Violent Year
Mike Leigh, Mr. Turner

 

Commentary: There is always something to be learned about the DGA’s nominations. Historically speaking, the DGA and Oscar’s lists split 4/5 and rarely match up a perfect 5/5. However, 2012 was the most baffling year for Best Director in history. That year, Ben Affleck won Best Director at the DGA for Argo, yet he wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars. To make matters even more confusing, two of his fellow DGA nominees (Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty and Tom Hooper for Les Miserables) missed the Oscar lineup, too. It was the odd year with a 2/5 split, with only Ang Lee (Life of Pi) and Steven Spielberg (Lincoln) holding serve. Though anything is possible, I’m expecting the traditional 4/5 split this year.

The DGA nominated Linklater, Iñárritu, Anderson, Tyldum, and Eastwood this year. Which one drops? Linklater, Iñárritu, and Anderson are locks, since they were nominated by BAFTA and the Golden Globes as well. BAFTA nominated James Marsh over Morten Tyldum and Damien Chazelle over Clint Eastwood. The Golden Globes ignored those four and nominated DuVernay and Fincher.

Most believe that one of the nominations will be between the two British bio. pics, so spot four should be between Tyldum and Marsh. I can’t see both getting in. The DGA branch’s nomination for Tyldum gives him the edge, in my opinion.

The fifth spot is difficult for me to predict. Conventional wisdom says to never, absolutely never, bet against Eastwood with a DGA nomination. However, conventional wisdom also says the DGA and Oscar’s list rarely matches a perfect 5/5. Ever since the Academy has spread Best Picture to more than five nominees, we haven’t had a “lone director” nominee (meaning the director gets nominated, but the picture doesn’t). It is hard to predict DuVernay, since I don’t think Selma will get nominated for Best Picture. However, I could be completely wrong about Selma missing Best Picture, which makes DuVernay a wise choice for the fifth spot. Also, the Academy has never nominated a female African-American director for Best Director. Sometimes the Academy likes to make history, so maybe the temptation to nominate DuVernay is there. With that said, if the Academy were to ever nominate a “lone director” again, Fincher would be a very tempting choice, since he is a great visionary and one of the best auteurs of this century. Then again, the Academy could always surprise us and nominate Mike Leigh out of nowhere, a director the Academy loves to randomly throw into the mix every so often. Without BAFTA fully embracing Mr. Turner, I don’t see the support from the Academy, either.

I’m going to predict that Chazelle gets the fifth nomination. It will be a lot like when Benh Zeitlin was nominated for Beast of the Southern Wild, a first time director that the Academy sees as a future great.

 

Best Actor

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Michael Keaton, Birdman [LOCK]

Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything [LOCK]
Benedict Cumberbatch, The Imitation Game [LOCK]
Jake Gyllenhaal, Nightcrawler [LIKELY]
David Oyelowo, Selma [BUBBLE]

 

True Alternatives:

Steve Carell, Foxcatcher

Bradley Cooper, American Sniper
Ralph Fiennes, The Grand Budapest Hotel

 

Longshots:

Miles Teller, Whiplash

Oscar Isaac, A Most Violent Year
Timothy Spall, Mr. Turner
Bill Murray, St. Vincent
Channing Tatum, Foxcatcher
Joaquin Phoenix, Inherent Vice

 

Commentary: The SAG and BAFTA lineup included Keaton, Redmayne, Cumberbatch, and Gyllenhaal. For the fifth spot, SAG went with Carell and BAFTA went with Fiennes. Here is the big issue, though—Carell was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Foxcatcher by BAFTA, which somewhat explains Fiennes’ surprise nomination. Both candidates were nominated at the Golden Globes, too. Throughout 2014, Carell was campaigned in the trade papers and websites as the lead in Foxcatcher (and for anyone that has seen the film, it is clear that Tatum is the lead). Since Carell was nominated at BAFTA for Supporting Actor, I think this is a sign of things to come, so I’m highly doubting Carell makes the Best Actor lineup (I hope the Academy does the right thing and nominates him in Supporting Actor…more on this later).

It would be easy for me to just say Fiennes takes the fifth spot in the Oscar lineup, but I actually think Oyelowo and Cooper stand the best chance of getting the wide open fifth spot. I’m going to say that Oyelowo gets the nomination, since Selma has to be nominated somewhere and I think the Academy cannot resist nominating the actor who portrayed Martin Luther King onscreen (even if screeners are a problem). Though Cooper has not received anything in terms of precursor support, the recent buzz about American Sniper is hitting at the right time. The Academy has nominated plenty of actors in the fifth spot before without precursor citations, but I think the factor working against Cooper is that he has already been nominated two years in a row (for Silver Linings Playbook and American Hustle). Is the Academy ready to make Cooper a three-time nominee, three years in a row?

Why is Gyllenhaal not a lock with such strong precursor support? I think he’s safely in (borderline lock), since I can’t see a single scenario where the five nominees are all newcomers to the Oscar scene (Gyllenhaal was nominated for Brokeback Mountain and the Best Actor lineup always includes one previous nominee). However, what happens if Carell somehow gets in as a lead and/or Fiennes or Cooper takes the spot as a former nominee? That would be mass chaos. Keaton and Redmayne are in it to win this thing and how is Cumberbatch really going to miss out?

 

 

Best Actress

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Julianne Moore, Still Alice [LOCK]

Rosamund Pike, Gone Girl [LOCK]
Felicity Jones, The Theory of Everything [LOCK]
Reese Witherspoon, Wild [LIKELY]
Jennifer Aniston, Cake [BUBBLE]

 

Alternatives:

Amy Adams, Big Eyes

Marion Cotillard, Two Days, One Night
Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
Emily Blunt, Into the Woods
Hilary Swank, The Horseman
Shianne Woodley, The Fault in Our Stars

 

Longshots:

Gugu Mbatha-Raw, Belle

Anne Dorval, Mommy
Jessica Chastain, The Disappearance of Elanor Rigby

 

 

Commentary: The Golden Globe—Best Actress (Drama) and SAG lists match the five that I have predicted. At BAFTA, Aniston was not on the list, mainly because rumor has it that Cake was ineligible, so Adams took the fifth spot.

I would say that Moore, Pike, and Jones are locks. Witherspoon is probably in, too, given precursor support, but in terms of buzz, Wild’s has died, whereas Moore is being pushed to win, Pike played probably the most talked about female lead all year, and Jones represents the female lead that is connected to a Best Picture nominee (usually always one a year). Witherspoon seems more vulnerable than Moore, Pike, and Jones.

I’ll say Aniston gets her first Oscar nomination, since the campaign has earned her nominations in the right precursors, I’m starting to think the Academy won’t nominate Adams again until they’re ready to give her the statue, and Cotillard will split her own vote (she’s just that good of an actress).

 

 

Best Supporting Actor

 

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

J.K. Simmons, Whiplash [LOCK]

Edward Norton, Birdman [LOCK]
Ethan Hawke, Boyhood [LOCK]
Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher [LOCK]
Steve Carell, Foxcatcher [BUBBLE]

 

Alternatives:

Robert Duvall, The Judge

Josh Brolin, Inherent Vice
Christoph Waltz, Big Eyes
Chris Pine, Into the Woods

 

Longshots:

Miyavi, Unbroken

Tom Wilkinson, Selma

Tim Roth, Selma
Alec Baldwin, Still Alice

Charles Dance, The Imitation Game

Alfred Molina, Love is Strange

 

Commentary: The SAG and Golden Globes nominated the same five actors—Simmons, Norton, Hawke, Ruffalo, and Duvall. However, BAFTA threw a wrench into the system and nominated Carell (who has been campaigned as a lead throughout 2014) in Supporting Actor where he belongs.

Some people believe that Duvall’s possible nomination is polarizing. For one, he is a great actor who hasn’t been nominated in a decade and a half. However, The Judge was one of the more disappointing films of the year, and though Duvall gives a good (not memorable) performance, does the Academy really want to recognize that film for anything?

Other than Carell, who could entirely miss the Oscars since some of his votes will go into the lead and supporting categories, who could possibly replace Devall? The Academy has disagreed with categorization of Oscar campaigns in the past (see Keisha Castle-Hughes being campaigned for Supporting Actress for Whale Rider, only to receive a Best Actress nomination, or when Kate Winslet was campaigned as for Supporting Actress for The Reader, later getting a lead nomination and winning the Oscar). Some surprise nominees come via swapping categories, and I think this is the time when the Academy follows the BAFTA’s lead and does the correct thing nominating Carell in supporting.

If Carell does split his own vote, Duvall probably gets in. If not, the most buzzed about performances at the moment are Brolin, Waltz, and Pine (though I don’t see Pine getting in without Streep…more on this later).

 

 

Best Supporting Actress

 

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Patricia Arquette, Boyhood [LOCK]

Keira Knightley, The Imitation Game [LOCK]

Emma Stone, Birdman [LOCK]

Rene Russo, Nightcrawler [BUBBLE]

Jessica Chastain, A Most Violent Year [BUBBLE]

 

Alternatives:

Meryl Streep, Into the Woods

Naomi Watts, St. Vincent

Tilda Swinton, Snowpiercer

Imelda Staunton, Pride

Vanessa Redgrave, Foxcatcher

Sienna Miller, American Sniper
Carmen Ejogo, Selma

 

Longshots:

Carrie Coon, Gone Girl

Kristen Stewart, Still Alice

Katherine Waterston, Inherent Vice

 

Commentary: The Golden Globes and SAG nominated Arquette, Knightley, Stone, and Streep. However, SAG nominated Watts and the Globes nominated Chastain. BAFTA nominated Arquette, Knightley, Stone, Russo, and Staunton (surprisingly, Streep was left off for Russo and Staunton). Based on the precursors, Arquette, Knightley, and Stone are in.

Why would I dare think that this would be the year the Academy leaves out Streep? I mean, they’d nominate her for digging sand, puffing, jumping into the hole, and staring at the audience for over an hour, saying nothing. On top of that, the Academy would claim it’s profound, challenging acting. At some point, Streep’s run at nominations has to end. I say she becomes the surprise snub come Oscar morning and I understand that I might be the only one to predict this.

I think Russo’s buzz is peaking at the right time, and given she was one of the more talented actresses in the 90s, stuck in mediocre films, Oscar likes to reward actresses and actors for their dramatic comebacks, so Russo fits the bill as a great first time nominee at this stage in her career.

As for Chastain, she did win the NBR’s Best Supporting Actress award. Every so often, the NBR winner gets left out of the Oscar nomination pool, but I say Chastain pulls it off in a tight race with Streep. Also, Chastain has been well liked by the Academy in her short career.

If not Chastain, maybe Watt’s SAG nomination carries merit (think Ethan Hawke’s Oscar nomination for Training Day after only a SAG or Demian Bichir’s Oscar nomination for A Better Life after only a SAG nomination). Swinton and Redgrave seem to keep producing good work, yet always get overlooked nomination time, so maybe they get sympathy votes.

Conventional wisdom, which again I’m going against for Eastwood in director, says Streep gets nominated for being Meryl Streep, but I say Russo and Chastain getting in are my “no guts, no glory” picks.

 

 

Best Original Screenplay

 

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

Birdman [LOCK]

Boyhood [LOCK]

The Grand Budapest Hotel [LOCK]

Nightcrawler [LIKELY]

Foxcatcher [BUBBLE]

Alternatives:

Mr. Turner

A Most Violent Year

Selma

Ida

 

Longshots:

Big Eyes

Top Five

Dear White People

St. Vincent

Cake

Interstellar

 

Commentary: The WGA (Writers Guild of America) nominees are always deceiving, since so many films are deemed ineligible by their rigorous standards, so they rarely are a reliable source to gauge the Oscar with. BAFTA is usually a great precursor to judge the list, as well as what wins critics’ awards (the critics’ awards have the most influence in writing categories).

BAFTA nominated Birdman, Boyhood, The Grand Budapest Hotel, Nightcrawler, and Whiplash. Since the Academy has deemed Whiplash an “adapted” screenplay (since it is an adaptation of Chazelle’s short film), Whiplash will not be nominated here.

The fifth spot is a guess, honestly. I’m going with Foxcatcher, since I’m predicting it to get nominated for Best Picture. However, Mike Leigh (director/writer of Mr. Turner) is an Academy favorite and usually always makes it in for his writing, so he might get the token fifth spot. Sometimes a foreign film lands a screenplay nomination, so as odd as it sounds, don’t be surprised if Ida (Poland’s Oscar submission) randomly pop up here.

The reason Selma has a low chance at a nomination here is simply the controversy behind whether the writers portrayed President Lyndon B. Johnson correctly. Since it is an “original screenplay” (not adapted), I think it shouldn’t matter that much if the material moves the actors and audiences. However, I think Selma’s chances at a screenplay nomination are low, given the main criticism about the film is the writing itself.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

 

 

Predicted Nominees:

The Imitation Game [LOCK]

Gone Girl [LOCK]

The Theory of Everything [LIKELY]

American Sniper [LIKELY]

Whiplash [BUBBLE]

Alternatives:

Wild

Inherence Vice

Longshots:

Guardians of the Galaxy

Unbroken

 

Commentary: BAFTA nominated The Imitation Game, Gone Girl, The Theory of Everything, American Sniper, and Paddington. However, Paddington is not eligible for the Oscars (the film didn’t meet the qualifying deadline in the United States). Given those four films listed above were nominated and respected by critics, I’d say they’re good shots.

I think Whiplash being eligible in “adapted screenplay” at the Academy Awards means it gets the fifth spot, yet some might not think it is a true adaptation. Moreover, some people really believe Wild will get nominated over one of the five films above, even though buzz for the film has died over the past month.

 

We shall see Thursday morning.